The Future Of The UFC

Although we have a set title fight in our sights (Hughes vs. Serra), a slightly deeper look into the ranks of the UFC will give us a more accurate picture of how the sport should shape up over the next six months. While feuds and rivalries culminate in once-a-month events, the sport is built between those events as every member of the roster fights, bargains, and even pleads for a title shot. The following is a look at each division and who is fighting for the title.

Heavyweights: With Andrei Arlovski missing his new contract, Cro Cop dropping fights like he was bought off, and Couture temporarily out of the fight game, the whole division is really up for grabs. It’s unlikely that White would simply award the belt to the winner of an upcoming fight as it wouldn’t make sense for Kongo or Nogueira to receive a title with very little UFC experience under their belts. He could justify giving it to Sylvia as he was the last guy to hold the belt and is fresh off a win, but I doubt he’d give the title to the least marketable guy this side of O.J. Simpson. What is likely is that we’ll see Sylvia take on the Kongo/Nogueira winner in a mini grand prix of sorts. While the best match up for the sport would have been Vera and Kongo, it was spoiled by Sylvia’s yawn-inducing win last month (not that Vera helped to make it exciting, either…). I’d expect to see Nogueira and Sylvia, but the way the UFC’s cookies have been crumbling lately, I’d probably be better off just flipping a coin.

Light Heavyweights: This is obviously the toughest one to call, with the four big names (Liddell, Henderson, Shogun, Wanderlei) being more than one win from a title shot. That leaves us with three guys who can stake a legitimate claim to Rampage’s belt. They are: Keith Jardine, Lyoto Machida, and Forrest Griffin. It probably won’t be Jardine, because although he’s knocked out Griffin and beat Liddell, he suffered a brutal KO at the hands of Houston Alexander at UFC 71. And while Machida’s been impressive in his UFC fights (3 for 3), two weren’t on the main telecast and he doesn’t have quite enough name recognition or ability to speak English to warrant being one good punch away from a title. He’ll have to win one or two more before getting any serious consideration. The honor, I would bet, will go to Forrest, who the UFC considers the heir apparent to the holy trinity of ratings that is about to retire (Couture, Liddell, Hughes). He fits in with the tough, common man image that has gained the UFC so much popularity and it looks as though he won’t get that fight against Wanderlei due to an injury he’s harbored for quite some time. With Wanderlei looking to fight sooner and Forrest out until early 2008, I don’t think we’ll see Rampage Jackson in action for another 8 months (see: Matt Serra) at which point he and Griffin should meet for an all out war.

Middleweights: Dana White has suggested that the winner of the Okami/MacDonald could potentially get an automatic title shot, but that seems counterintuitive due to what is logical “MMAth.” With Silva’s dominant second win over Franklin, and Franklin’s win over Okami, who in their right mind would want to see Silva run down the food chain to take on a man who will almost surely beat? I’m aware that Okami technically beat Silva via DQ, but that was nearly two years ago and before Silva rattled off six straight wins against some of the toughest competition around. White is clearly having trouble booking anyone against Silva and until he can sign Filho or Kang, he’s going to have to convince Henderson to drop to 185 and take on Silva. Initially against the idea of dropping weight, Henderson has since warmed up to the idea, but would probably take a warm up before tackling The Spider.

Welterweights: Finally, a simple division. GSP will get an automatic title shot at whoever wins the Hughes-Serra fight. And when Matt Hughes destroys Serra, it’ll set up just the third trilogy in UFC history. Is there much else to say? When the dust settles, however, it is more likely that Karo Parisyan would get the title shot instead of Koscheck or Sanchez, who have spent the last year losing and turning in lackluster performances. The St. Pierre-Parisyan feud is one that we could be seeing for the next five years.

Lightweights: This division isn’t as tough as it is downright bizarre. With the title not stripped from Sherk, who is now out of action for a full year, White has wisely decided to move on and book one their biggest moneymakers, BJ Penn, against Joe Stevenson. This is smart booking as Penn and Stevenson have separated themselves from the rest of the pack of Lightweight fighters. Beyond those two, there’s just a ton of really athletic guys who haven’t made that big of a splash. No outrageous personalities, no huge upsets, just about five guys who are all on the same level. The UFC tried to give a few of them title shots (Franca, Florian), but nothing came of it and buys were weak. This is the smartest play considering the situation of the current champion. If the UFC is going to sign anyone now, I’d say that they need to be looking for Lightweights even before Middleweights. If I were Dana White, I’d be throwing a huge contract at Urijah Faber, the Featherweight champion in the UFC-owned WEC. He’d add some star power and charisma to a division which is garnering less and less interest with each passing day..

With more contract disputes, injuries, and signings than ever before, it’s tough to call the future of a sport as dynamic as Mixed Martial Arts, but this guide should serve as a decent start.